Freedom On The Stumble

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The events of the past week in Iran have reminded many just how precious freedom is. The government of Iran offers the illusion of freedom and democracy via presidential elections. But the elections are a sham. The religious leaders (aka the mullahs) that run Iran will ultimately decide who wins. And in this case they decided that the status quo of Ahmadinejad was just fine for the Iranian people. But the people have other ideas in mind.

The opposition leader Mousavi probably wouldn't be much better than the current president of Iran. After all, he would still be a puppet of the mullahs. So in terms of a change in foreign policy towards the United States or Israel, we can't really hope for any breakthroughs. Still, the people seem to be sick of Ahamdinejad and the mullahs who decide how everything goes in Iran. The people want their votes to count and their voices to be heard. Their voices are being heard now and the price of speaking out is a high one.

The thugs of the Iranian regime have unleashed their muscle on the populace. The message is clear. The mullahs will tolerate small bit of dissent and nothing more. People outraged at the initial response to the protests have continued to press the issue for the past week, staging repeated demonstrations and general acts of defiance against the powers that be. The Iranian regime has responded in a violent matter by having their thugs beat, brutalize and murder those who oppose the official position of the state. Yet, as of today the protests still go on.

After taking in the events of the past week a few things are obvious to me. The elections in Iran are a sham and not even worth investigating. The fix is always in there. The opposition candidate wouldn't be much better than the current president so there's no reason to make him a symbol of Iranian independence. The people of Iran want democracy.

I'm under no illusions that democracy in Iran would mean great improvements in relations with the U.S. or Israel. But I think democracy would provide the people of Iran with a chance to chart a course that allows their country to re-join the community of peace loving nations. A democratic Iran may still end up with nuclear weapons. But I would bet that the threat of Iran using those weapons would be much smaller. And I also think that a democratic Iran would eliminate state support for terrorism.

I'd like to say that freedom is on the march in Iran but I don't think that's likely. The regime has a strong hold on the country and they're likely to continue to crack down until resistance appears to be futile. The people of Iran are also lacking support from the United States that is so crucial in their attempts to be free.

I have a hunch that Iranians look to their western border and see that Iraqis now at least have a vote that counts. The U.S. and our allies in toppling Saddam made that possible. President Obama has made it clear since day one of his Presidency that the U.S. is not in that business anymore. Rather than agitate for freedom and advocate regime change the U.S. will double our efforts to seek common ground with the various despots that dot the landscape of the earth. Obama has made the point loud and clear that the likes of Castro, Chavez, Kim Jong Il, Ahmadinejad and others are to be bargained with.

The new U.S. approach will certainly reduce friction in the short term, but in the long run the festering wound that is totalitarianism will continue to breed hatred, violence and poverty in the nations that house those sorts of regimes. Dissidents and true opposition leaders won't find comfort in the new "go along to get along" doctrine of the Obama administration.

And so the roll of nations that support freedom and democracy is not likely to increase anytime soon. But I salute those who fight the good fight even if they don't get the support they need from our current administration.
At the present time there are three Americans being held for the alleged crime of espionage in both Iran and North Korea. All three are women. All three are journalists. All three are almost certainly innocent. The U.S. government must do something about this.

In February of 2009 Roxana Saberi was arrested in Iran for buying a bottle of wine. She was later charged with spying, tried, convicted and sentenced to eight years in prison. Roxana is well known as a journalist and no reasonable evidence has been presented to support the claims of espionage. She is currently engaging in a hunger strike while imprisoned to protest the travesty of her arrest and subsequent kangaroo court conviction. More information on Roxana and the current situation is available at http://freeroxana.net/.

Laura Ling and Euana Lee are journalists with Current.tv, a new media network started by Al Gore. They were arrested in March 2009 for allegedly crossing the border into North Korea from China. As you might expect there are conflicting accounts of what exactly happened but the net result is that these two women will soon be tried on the charge of espionage. I'm not aware of any organized online effort to garner support for Laura and Euana. 

All three of these women took significant chances getting involved with countries that are know to be among the lowest of the low when it comes to human rights. That doesn't excuse the conduct of Iran and North Korea though. And it doesn't diminish the responsibility of the United States Government in securing their release. 

There's been a lot of talk by the President since the campaign and inauguration about how reaching out to enemies will yield improved relations with and greater humanity from rogue nations throughout the world. I know that the President has made overtures to a variety of suspect world leaders including Ahmadinejad of Iran and Chavez of Venezuela. I'm not aware of any outreach to Kim Jong Il in North Korea.

The bottom line is this. Where's the beef on American policy toward rogue states that imprison American journalists? The soft and silent approach has not worked yet. I really hope it does work because we can't leave these women hanging out to dry. 

The President did the right thing in securing the release of Captain Phillips from the Somali pirates. That was child's play compared to this scenario though. Somalia is a country that has nothing, not even a government. Both Iran and North Korea have nuclear capabilities and unhinged despots minding the store. Situations like these are the ones where Presidents earn their stripes (or not.) 

Because We Remained Strong

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Ronald Reagan's very famous "tear down this wall" speech included another crucial quote that speaks to the virtues of using strong (some might say stubborn or arrogant) foreign policy when dealing with adversaries.

"Because we remained strong the Soviets came back to the table."

 

There's a very important lesson to be learned in Reagan's steadfastness when it came to defending Freedom and Democracy around the world. Apologizing for preaching values that stress Freedom and Democracy puts our country in a position of weakness in the eyes of the leaders of countries for whom those words mean nothing. Because they will believe that they are stronger and can outlast and outsmart us. 

I say give the likes of Chavez, Ahmadinejad, Castro and Kim Jong Il nothing. Not a wink. Not a smile. And definitely not a handshake. You speak past them as if they are invisible. You talk directly to their people. And you let them know the great things that are waiting for them on the other side. You don't give an inch. Because for every inch you give they will take a foot. And if our leaders have the personal will to stand up to the monsters then eventually you get something like this.


A lot of people said at the time that Reagan would start a nuclear war as a consequence of his strong pro freedom stance during the Cold War. It turns out that he won the thing without having to fire a shot.

About Those Tea Parties

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Yesterday thousands of fellow conservatives and many otherwise disgruntled Americans from across the political spectrum got together to protest excessive government spending, corporate bailouts and massive taxation of the citizenry. As you could probably imagine any event like this, especially one being cheered on and heavily covered by those dogs at Fox News was bound to get out of control. Check out this video I found on YouTube of the right-wing extremists setting fire to a mannequin in the streets.



Oh wait a minute that was at the G20 in England. Things did get a little crazy though. In thos other video I found there was lots of chanting and a bit of chaos as the marchers blocked the streets.
 


Okay that was an anti-Israel protest in San Francisco. One of the real tea parties went down in San Antonio where to the horror of law enforcement officials people waved (gulp!) American flags and Ted Nugent played the Star Spangled Banner in front of a large crowd that looked to be very peaceful and having a good time.



Jeez, things really got crazy. To hear (or see) the comments from news reports and angry bloggers you would think that these organized protests were organized by the devil himself.

Americans And Whining

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I think it's true that in the United States we've become a bit of a spoiled lot of people. Phil Gramm got slammed last year for saying that the country needed more leadership and less whining. I'll buy that. These are amazing times we're living in. 

I recently heard a list of the things that a person could buy today if they worked a minimum wage job for the summer. Now I realized that this doesn't apply to someone who has to make house payments, pay insurance bills and generally sustain a family. But think about a teenager who lives at home with their parents. What could that kid buy after a summer worth of work today versus a similar job in the 1930s?

The Federal Minimum Wage will be set at $7.25 an hour this summer so let's use that for a quick calculation. Let's say a kid works a forty hour week for all of June, July and August. The gross amount is about $3,500. After withholdings it will probably end up being a net of about $2,400 for the summer. Here's my own list of things that money would buy today.

Even with this list there is almost $500 left over. Let's say that money goes to cover the cost of 200 channels of HD cable and service on the iPhone for about four months. Wow!  The list I put together could turn one person into a serious media powerhouse. There's more digital power their than anyone could have imagined ten years ago. 

In the 1930s I think that minimum wages were floating around $0.30 an hour. So over the course of a summer that kids grandfather was earning $145. And if he wanted to go out and buy something there was nothing available that is even remotely like what you could put in your shopping basket today from a technology perspective. Nothing!

Wars Don't End By Declaration

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It seems that for many people President Obama's declaration that combat operations in Iraq would end on August 31, 2010 the moment was a joyous one. After all, the end of a long war (going on six years now) that has cost the lives of tens out thousands of Iraqis and several thousand American forces should be a welcome development to every American. I'm not feeling too joyous though.

As someone who has served in the military and spent quite a bit of time (more than most people at least) studying military history I really don't believe that anyone can declare an end to combat operations as long as troops are on the ground. The President's current plan to end combat operations by the date mentioned above is a partial withdrawal plan. The force in Iraq will draw down to about 50,000 troops and those who remain will be ordered to stay out of any fighting. That's easier said than done.

I don't think that our forces in Iraq have kept on fighting merely because they want to continue killing people. It's pretty clear that their actions in Iraq over the last few years have been dictated by a brutal enemy that plays by absolutely no rules. So as long as there has been an insurgency there has been a need for combat operations which has greatly overshadowed the many other non-combat efforts being forwarded by U.S. forces in Iraq. Thankfully a change in strategy by the Bush administration in 2007 has yielded great success in the battle against the insurgency. The effort has been so successful that the American media rarely mentions Iraq anymore. 

So I think that the stage has been set very well for President Obama to begin the orderly withdrawal that he promised on the campaign trail. But it will be an orderly withdrawal in victory, rather than defeat. So while the credit for withdrawal will inevitably go to President Obama, the credit for victory should go to President Bush, General Petraeus and our brave armed forces. Still, the future is uncertain.

As long as U.S. troops remain in Iraq there is a possibility that they will be engaged in combat. We have every reason to believe that Iraq will continue to remain a dangerous place for the foreseeable future, albeit a place that won't nearly be as dangerous as it was from 2005 - 2007. So let's not fool ourselves into thinking that the presence of fewer American troops won't mean violence that may lead to U.S. or Iraqi casualties. I don't believe for a second that the President would leave a troop in a combat zone with orders not to defend themselves using deadly force. Such an order would make our troops sitting ducks. Anyone remember Somalia?

When the last U.S. troops are out of Iraq I'll be one of the first to cheer the situation, provided of course that the troops come out under circumstances that are at least comparable or better to the way they are today. In the meantime I will still feel cautious about the situation because combat operations are never ended by declarations eighteen months ahead of a particular date. Combat operations will be ended when either all troops are removed or there is no longer a threat of engagement by the enemy.



I'm Not Spending

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Last night the U.S. House of Representatives passed the largest spending bill in the history of the world. On Monday morning the President will sign the bill into law and kick off what I call stimulus-a-go-go. You see there's this sound I'm hearing. It's the sound of a thousand wing tipped lobbyists rushing down Pennsylvania Avenue to get in line to spend that money. Depending on your political affiliation you may think that's a beautiful thing or it may make you sick to your stomach. I'm inclined to the latter position.

I don't have much confidence that the spending plan will do much to improve things for the average working person I do know that government money, which is our money, will be spent in large quantities. Where it will end up going to is something that no one can guarantee for sure. It will go somewhere and it will be spent on something but that does not mean that the overall economy will benefit from these expenditures. I'm a big believer in the possibilities of unintended consequences.

For example, our legislators will spend billions of dollars on alternative energy projects. The intention in this act is to develop technologies that will allow for carbon free power generation. But some (probably most) of the money invested in such technologies will be wasted on things (like ethanol for example) that do little to generate cleaner energy and wean us off dependence on foreign oil.

Another example of unintended consequences involves how people will spend their stimulus benefit money over the next couple of years. Politicians want people to take their minuscule tax cuts ($800 a year for a married couple) and spend them in the economy. They want people to take the money they earn from their jobs and spend it on televisions and cars and houses and exorbitant college tuition for their kids. All of those actions would help to "stimulate" the economy. But what if people don't do that?

Happy New Year 2009

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Wow, 2009. I remember when Prince sung about partying like it was 1999. We're ten years past that now. Party like it's 2009?I know a lot of people are hung over coming out of 2008 with the financial crisis, recession, presidential election and now war between Israel and Hamas. I believe that things will get better though.

The U.S. is still at war (or something between war and nation building) in Iraq and Afghanistan. Major media doesn't write about Iraq much anymore. That's been my signal that things are going much better over there. I recently saw a documentary about Afghanistan that showed what the U.S. Special Forces are doing over there. It's a very dangerous situation in Afghanistan. Getting fully engaged there would be a mistake because the terrorists could fight a long, protracted war of attrition out of those mountains. My best to our forces fighting the good (and sadly forgotten) fight in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'm looking forward to continuing my MBA education in 2009. I found it difficult going to classes at night while working this past fall. I got through it though with an A and A- in my two classes. I'm forging ahead with two more classes in the spring with a goal of completing my MBA at the end of 2010 or mid-2011 at latest. Jeez, 2011. I can't even begin to think about it.

The family is doing well. We're healthy. The girls (Mia and Rosetta) are growing. Juliet is working hard to handle two little ones. Mia goes to school three days a week for half a day while Juliet's Mom and Aunt have contributed a lot to help around our new house.

Mia Rosetta Juliet
Mia, Rosetta and Juliet

My big resolutions for 2009 are:
  • To stay in better touch with friends and family
  • Get down to New York City more
That's all for now folks. Have a great 2009.

Holiday Greetings

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We're getting some serious snow here in Albany this weekend. I guess that you could say it's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas! Check it out below.

December Snow

It got us in the mood to record a holiday greeting in front of the Christmas tree.

Hank Paulson and his band of merry squanderers of our children's future have a new fancy. They want to un-freeze the consumer credit markets so that people can borrow more money to buy cars they can't afford, education they can't afford, houses they can't afford. Ah what the heck the latest "plan" is meant to help people buy anything they can't afford.

From the Wall Street Journal today, "Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, seeking to ease strains in the consumer credit market, plans to announce Tuesday the formation of a program to increase the availability of auto loans, student loans and credit cards, according to people familiar with the matter. The lending facility, which will be operated by the Federal Reserve, is expected to provide loans to investors who want to buy securities backed by credit cards, auto loans and student loans, these people said. Treasury will contribute between $25 billion to $100 billion to the facility from its $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program."

All I can say is heaven help us. This should be a time when people learn their lessons about debt and begin to live differently. The government is doing all it can to prevent that by intervening in the debt markets. And guess what. They're doing it with your money! That's right. Hank "Santa Claus" Paulson is spending your money so that someone can get credit at 15% interest to buy an X-Box on Black Friday.

There's a name for this. It's called robbing Peter to pay Paul. These phony machinations will continue to distort the markets, prevent people from getting out of debt and punish those who have managed to live a prudent lifestyle even as most people lost their minds.

Thanks for nothing Hank.